There is a consensus among political experts that the world's future wars will be fought over water, not oil. Experts say it would be the era in which rivers, lakes and aquifers become national security assets to be fought over, or controlled through surrogate armies and client states.
Surprisingly, where the whole world is fortunately lagging a bit behind for entering into this ill-fated era of 'hydrological warfare', the Asian region has surpassed the rest of the world due to the Indian expansionist agenda.
It is a hard fact that water wars remain no longer a part of science fiction movies; they are happening now. Pakistan, Nepal and Bangladesh are already victims of Indian water thievery. India has plans to construct 62 dams/hydro-electric units on the rivers Chenab and Jhelum, thus enabling it to render these rivers dry by 2014. The hydroelectric plants both built, or under construction, will enable India to block the entire waters of Chenab for 20-25 days. India has also started construction of three dams, Nimoo Bazgo, Dumkhar and Chutak on the river Indus, which will have a devastating impact on Pakistan's northern areas. Chutak is under construction on river Suru. In case if any of these dams collapses or a large quantity of water is deliberately released, it will not only endanger Bhasha dam, but also submerge Skardu city and its airport. The Karakorum Highway (KKH), between Besham and Jaglot, would also wash away. India has also persuaded Afghanistan to create a water reservoir on the River Kabul, another tributary of the river Indus.
India has disputes with Bangladesh over the Farraka Barrage, with Nepal over the Mahakali river and with Pakistan over the 1960 Indus Water Treaty. Without any qualms, India is busy building dams on all rivers flowing into Pakistan from Occupied Kashmir, to regain control of the western rivers in violation of the Indus Treaty. This is being deliberately done under a well-thought-out strategy to render Pakistan's link-canal system redundant, destroy the agriculture of Pakistan which is its mainstay, thus turning it into a desert.
Unfortunately, after using the water of the Pakistani, Bangladeshi and Nepali rivers, India is extending its water terrorism to Iran as well. India is building the Salma dam on the Hari Rud river basin in northwestern Afghanistan, which flows into Iran and forms the Sistan delta. Originally, the Salma dam was constructed in 1976, while in 2004 Water and Power Consultancy Service (India) Ltd. (WAPCOS), began reconstruction of the Salma dam power project in 2004. The completion of the project has been unnecessarily delayed and it is now expected to be commissioned by 2011 instead of 2009.
The Salma dam power project is India's largest project in Afghanistan, with a total estimated cost of US$116 million. This mega-project, aimed at generating 42MW of power, involves erection of 110 KV power transmission lines to Herat city and conspires to restrict the flow of water to Iran. By doing so, India will not only restrict river Hari Rud's flow of water to Iran, but also render barren the Sistan inland delta affecting some 400,000 people whose economy strongly depends on agriculture and the goods and services provided by the wetlands.
The Sistan delta in Iran is located at the end of a closed basin. The entire contributing basin is about 200,000 km and is largely located in Afghanistan. The river system discharges into an inland depression which, when sufficient water is available, forms the Hamoun lakes. These lakes are fresh and one of the main and most valuable aquatic ecosystems in Iran and are registered wetlands in the Ramsar and the UNESCO Biosphere Reserve conventions. The inflowing rivers from Afghanistan support the irrigated agriculture in the Sistan delta but are also the source for the lake system around the delta. And blocking the flow of Afghan river water into Iran will mean less water for the Hamouns, with resulting lower average water coverage of the lakes. Ultimately, this will not only endanger the ecosystem that the Hamouns support, but also the livelihood of its people that depend on the goods and services that the lake provides.
The Water Research Institute of Iran, in cooperation with ITC and Alterra from the Netherlands, carried out a study with an extensive analysis of all existing information on the river basin, including the natural resource system and its infrastructure, in Iran as well as in Afghanistan. Analyses showed that the Hamoun lakes are under serious risk of loosing their ecological value and potential developments will decrease the inflow to the lakes more than 50 per cent. The government of Iran has stated their concerns to the Afghan authorities, urging them to resolve the water sharing issue between the two countries before the construction of Salma dam, but to no avail. It is not because of the Afghan authorities, but due to Indian interest in building a dam on the Hari Rud. It is intriguing to know what interests India might have in constructing the Salma dam. Well, India has deep interests in any such activity whether economic, political, geographical, religious or cultural which can help consolidate its hegemonic ambitions.
Indian claims to earn the goodwill of Afghan masses is mere eyewash. Indian keenness to construct the Salma dam is aimed at encouraging the Afghan masses to agitate against Iranian interference in the construction of the Salma dam in order to create a rift between Afghanistan and Iran on the one hand and to appease the USA by depriving Iran of an appropriate flow of water, thus harming the agricultural economy, on the other hand. India, by and large, has no interest in developing Afghanistan besides keeping it under its thumb. Paradoxically, the Indian-pledged huge aid package to Afghanistan has neither been disbursed nor has any mega development project for Afghanistan commenced in time. Instead, in the last 7 years, India remain more committed to buying time for India-owned projects in Afghanistan on one or another pretext and increasing the number of RAW agents in the garb of security personnel, workers, doctors, engineers etc.
Factually, India needs the Afghanistan link for many reasons to maintain its links with the Central Asian states, to carry out subversive activities against Pakistan - considered its enemy No. 1 and to appease US and Western allies. During Taliban rule, India faced difficulties in maintaining its influence in the Central Asian region, which is not only energy-rich, but its large consumer market is of geo-economic importance to India. According to an Indian analyst, Meena Singh Roy, "India, as an extended neighbour of CARs, has major geo-strategic and economic interests in this region." That is why India is investing heavily in building roads and infrastructure linking Afghanistan with the Central Asian states. Apart from the Salma dam project, Indian oil companies are active in Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan. Moreover, in March 2007, after completing the refurbishment of a military base at Ayni, India became the fourth country, apart from Russia, the US and Germany to have a base in Central Asia. The base is of strategic importance to India. An Indian analyst, Sudha Ramachandran, observed that "a base at Ayni allows India rapid response to any emerging threat from the volatile Afghanistan-Pakistan arc … It also gives New Delhi a limited but significant capability to inject special forces into hostile theatres as and when the situation demands … in the event of military confrontation with Pakistan, India would be able to strike Pakistan's rear from Tajik soil… Ayni has to do with India's growing interests in Central Asia as well."
Salma dam-like projects are manifestation of India's dual regional policy according to which neighbours are regarded as enemies and an enemy's immediate neighbour as a friend. Also all such dams are a clear violation of the rights of the lower riparian according to international law. Yet, the US is looking to India as a central player in resolving the Afghanistan problem. But what can one possibly expect from a country which stoops to the lowest level of immorality by stealing water and blocking rivers to turn agricultural lands barren? If the US really wants peace and stability in the region, then it should restrict India from making war-ravaged Afghanistan a chessboard to pursue its own agenda. Better it would be for India to refrain from playing foul games, testing the patience of Afghans and victimising other regional neighbours through its water terrorism before it is too late. On the other hand, it would be better for Afghan authorities too, that instead playing into the hands of the Indians, they should struggle themselves to stand on their own feet and realise the Indian conspiracy before time runs out.