The US, President Musharraf and Asif Zardari appear to believe that the PPP's popular support base provides them enough room to manipulate. But it will be a colossal mistake to keep defying the will of the people.
Historically, the US has been comfortable with military rulers in Pakistan. However, the current democratic process in the country enjoys proactive American support. The people of Pakistan keep wondering why the US, unlike the past, wants democracy in Pakistan? Whether the US has really turned to democracy as a matter of moral conviction or as a matter of convenience?
From the outset, it is clear that US interests and concerns remain the same; it has only changed its tactics. There are mainly three reasons to support the democratic process as opposed to Musharraf-specific policy. One, the US realized that Musharraf's popularity at home was on the decline for multiple reasons. Two, a class of politicians, conspicuously the PPP, had assured the US that they could deliver better on the war on terror than a politically unpopular General, if given an opportunity. Three, the ongoing war on terror compels the US to remain closely engaged with Pakistan. So, the whole idea of democracy is designed to provide popular support to the US war on terror.
On the basis of this calculus, the US supports Pakistan's transition towards democracy. This, however, does not mean that the US has left all matters to be settled through a democratic process. Of course, we can neither be trusted with nukes nor with unqualified democracy. So, the US wants to define the contours of democracy for us. It wants the elected government in Pakistan to compensate for the legitimacy and popularity deficit of President Musharraf. The US wants him to carry on as a visible sign of continuity of Pakistan's public policy.
The problem with this proposition is that it is coming into conflict with domestic dynamics. The foremost is the issue of timing in politics. The US and Musharraf are at least five years late to try to form a dream team of moderate liberals. Had the PPP-Musharraf alliance formed after the 2002 election, the situation could have been different. But it couldn't happen, mainly because General Musharraf denied political space to mainstream parties. Rather he preferred to sponsor the PML-Q - a leftover group of the Nawaz League, augmented by splinter groups of various parties. They shared little except the desire to stay in power and aversion to either Nawaz Sharif or Benazir Bhutto. They did not even agree to Musharraf's agenda of reforms, because the majority belonged to the conservative core. Musharraf is, on record, to express his frustration with the Q League's performance on several occasions. This marriage of convenience brought glaring contradictions which marred the credibility of the Musharraf regime.
After eight years of rule, Musharraf has become highly unpopular and discredited. It has become too costly to associate with him. Even leaders of king's party complained after the defeat in elections that they had lost because of their alliance with President Musharraf. Once he was considered a sincere reformer; he was connected with the 'silent majority'. But the same silent majority watched him helplessly follow Machiavellian politics, so his words lost meanings for people. The most charitable view could be that the entire negative image is based on misperceptions. But in politics, perceptions and misperceptions equally matter. So, the widespread (mis)perception is that as long as he is around, the political system would remain destabilized.
Against this backdrop, US officials are busy with manoeuvres to keep an unpopular person in the presidency. They also want to block the reinstatement of the judges. The US, Musharraf and Zardari appear to believe that the PPP's popular support base provides them enough room to manipulate the situation in their favour. But it will be a huge mistake to keep defying the mandate of the people. It will hurt vital interests of the practitioners as well. On one hand, it will further fuel anti-American feelings in Pakistan. On the other, it could cause an irreversible damage to the image and support base of the PPP - the only popular secular/liberal party in Pakistan. The political space now available to mainstream moderate forces is likely to deplete. This could result in opening up of the floodgates to extremist forces.
But unfortunately, the US policy makers look oblivious to the reasons behind Musharraf's unpopularity at home. First, it is 'tight friendship' of the Bush administration with Musharraf that distorts the latter's image in the context of anti-American feelings. President Musharraf himself denied that he was an American stooge. Second, Musharraf's action against the higher judiciary, followed by an unprecedented lawyers' movement, has left a deep imprint on the public psyche. There is a deep and widespread revulsion against him for his actions against the judiciary. It resulted in predominantly anti-Musharraf vote in the general elections.
The US obsession with the war against terrorism has already inflicted great damage on our society. Perhaps, Americans could never realize that their too obvious support to Benazir Bhutto exposed her to fatal attacks, costing her life. Now their commendations for Mr Zardari and reservations against Nawaz Sharif would cause damage to the PPP and the body politic of the country. Because, the way the US wants to tune up the politics of Pakistan, puts the PPP in a very awkward position. The other day, US Congresswoman Sheila Jackson Lee said that Nawaz Sharif needed to be watched. Besides micromanaging, it is simply stupid advice. It will push the PML-N away from the center to the extreme religious right. The PPP needs to realize that keeping Nawaz in the mainstream is imperative. Parting ways with it would radicalise the PML-N and consensus building would become even more evasive. The intense polarization in the country will jeopardize the PPP's capability to govern the country.
Still, there is a hope, but only if democracy is given a chance to take its own course. For that matter, all major key players of politics need to rethink. First, America - the self-proclaimed beacon of democracy in the world - should acknowledge that its attempts to micromanage the politics of Pakistan contradict democratic principles. It will also reinforce anti-Americanism in the country. The US should appreciate the fact that the people of Pakistan demonstrated their political wisdom by rejecting the mullahs and the military. Second, the PPP should not take its popular support for granted. Finally, Musharraf should shed his notion of indispensability and accept the people's verdict that is unmistakably against his continuation. By quitting the political scene, he can do a great service to the nation.