Everything - and anything - that is happening in Pakistan today seems to be moving towards one end - early elections. Moves and counter-moves by political parties, back-channel negotiations between the major stake-holders, the sudden rash of public meetings and rallies across the land, the rapid rise of Tehreek-e-Insaf, the slow burning Memogate case and, last but not the least, the contempt of court proceedings taking an ugly turn in the Supreme Court - all these have convulsed the government with everybody in near agreement that elections may be the only way out of the tangled web.
Is this confluence of events a coincidence or a conspiracy? What it is, is difficult to say, but an analysis is in order for clarity.
Nawaz Sharif was taken on a long ride by the wily Zardari. But emerging from his bitter experience, he is now wiser and set to give Zardari a run for his cunning. Nawaz Sharif has at long last lost his patience and begun needling the government. Although, the PML-N does not want to shake the system, it is also not ready to let the PPP continue ruling any more.
"This corrupt government must go" is the war cry that Nawaz Sharif has been raising in rally after rally from Lahore to Larkana. Bad governance is sinking this country. Corruption is destroying Pakistan.
Let the country go to early elections as a way out of this logjam, he keeps telling his cheering Muslim League supporters.
President Zardari, intently listening to all the din and planning his next move, can hear the drumbeat of elections in the near future. But he is playing his cards close to his chest. He has been hinting vaguely about holding early elections, without coming out with a clear-cut proposal or election schedule, thus keeping Nawaz Sharif on tenterhooks.
To add to Zardari's worries, in comes Imran Khan suddenly from nowhere with a new battle cry challenging the legitimacy of what he calls a most corrupt government which, according to him, has forfeited its right to rule. The PPP could not give its supporters roti, kapra aur makan. Imran Khan says that the TI will give them insaf. The youth, the single largest block of votes in the country, which is totally disenchanted with the government's performance, is flocking in increasing numbers to Tehrik-e-Insaf. TI is for change, and change means the present political dispensation should go.
Maulana Fazlur Rahman, a PPP ally, deserted the coalition quite some time back and has since been manoeuvring behind the scenes to bounce back to power. It will surely not be averse to new electoral alliances for power by any means and to this end it is in contact with the PML-N, the JI and the other religious groups.
The PPP's relationship with the MQM has been a touch-and-go affair from the beginning. President Zardari knows that his dealing is with a difficult client who can change his tune and direction the moment an ill wind blows. Imran Khan holding a massive rally in Karachi with MQM looking on benignly, foreshadowed for PPP the future shape of things in Sindh.
In the midst of all this, the government was suddenly thrown off balance by the Memogate scandal. It has since regained some of its composure but remains wobbly because the case is still on. To complicate things further for the government, the Supreme Court has over the past two weeks tightened the screws in the contempt of court proceedings against the prime minister for not writing to the Swiss authorities in flagrant defiance of its order.
Buffeted by crosswinds from all sides, the government has lost its bearings but not yet its toehold on power. However, convulsions don't seem to end and new challenges are being thrown in the face of the government almost on a daily basis. From one end of the country to another, mammoth public meetings are being organised by various parties as part of their mass mobilization campaigns in anticipation of early elections.
All omens indicate that we are moving towards early elections. Politicians calling for early polls and big public rallies being held all over the country are tell-tale signs of a desire for change on the part of all and sundry. But as media reports indicate, negotiations are also going on behind closed doors between the ruling party and opposition groups to work out the modalities and time frame for an early election. Truth to speak, in the present circumstances early elections appear to be a safe way out of trouble for both. For the government, polls will help clear the mess it has created by its numerous acts of omission and commission over the last four years of unprecedentedly bad governance. As for the opposition parties, they will have an opportunity to try to bounce back to power. Against this backdrop political developments in the coming weeks will be interesting to watch.