Predictably, the talks between the coalition partners, the Pakistan Muslim League (PML-N) and the Pakistan People's Party (PPP) on the issue of the restoration of deposed judges, have fallen through. As reports are pouring in now, only a miracle could restore the 60 deposed judges of the superior judiciary even after the May 12, deadline. Consequently, the PML-N has bade adieu to the coalition government by withdrawing its ministers from the federal cabinet of Syed Yousaf Raza Gillani. Although nothing finally has been said by the PML-N about its future course of action, and a decision in this regard would only be arrived at after the Central Working Committee (CWC) meeting of the party. But the party was left with no other option but to leave the central government, albeit reluctantly. It is understandable on the part of certain circles within the PML-N, to want to keep intact the coalition government with the PPP because, while in the government, it would be better poised to work for the restoration of judges and stem the politico-constitutional stalemate apart from the energy and economic crises.
As a party to the issue, the PML-N is going to have to take quite a tough decision whether to peg its politics exclusively on the issue of the restoration of the judges at a time when the country is faced with multifarious crises. Indubitably, an independent judiciary is indispensable for smooth functioning of the political system, in fact, for supporting the social edifice, but at the same time the other problems in the country are such that they need to be addressed promptly. After the withdrawal of the PML-N from the coalition government at the centre there will be retrospection within the party leadership that whether it is prudent being a countrywide party with the focus only on one issue.
On the other hand, it is somewhat beyond comprehension why PPP Co-chairman, Asif Ali Zardari, has taken such a rigid stand on the restoration of deposed judges, as this stance is going to greatly discredit the party. The fact of the matter is that the failure of the PPP on the deposed judges issue is the gain of the PML-N, which may have been a coalition partner, but has been a political rival in the past. It is also beyond comprehension why Asif Zardari has toed President Pervez Musharraf's line regarding the post-Nov 3, judiciary, headed by Chief Justice Abdul Hameed Dogar. One explanation could be that by restoring deposed Chief Justice Iftikhar Chaudhry, PPP Co-chairman, Asif Ali Zardari, does not want to create problems for his government in future because of the suo moto actions the deposed chief justice is expected to take on certain issues after his reinstatement. But while trying to shield his party's government from what may be termed judicial activism, Asif Zardari may have endangered his government in the long run. Because, even if the PML-N keeps its support to the PPP government intact, there would always be risk involved. Then, if the PML-N totally abandons the PPP, the latter would have to fall back upon the presidential camp in order to continue in power. In this case, the PPP has to implement what Pervez Musharraf is going to dictate. However, being a popular party, it would not only be a heavy burden on its conscience but also political suicide.
The second explanation for Zardari's uncompromising stand on the deposed judges is American pressure. This explanation seems to be more tenable. The claims on the contrary by the PML-N and PPP notwithstanding, the important meetings on May 11, of US Assistant Secretary of State, Richard Boucher, in London with Nawaz Sharif and Asif Zardari, while both were about to decide the fate of the deposed judges is pregnant with consequences. It was not a coincidence that Boucher met with the two leaders at such a crucial phase of negotiations, out of the blue. This is the arm-twisting which has been the hallmark of the American policy throughout the 20th century. It is now an open secret that the Americans, despite their reservations regarding President Musharraf, have still very much pinned their national interests on Pervez Musharraf, who they believe is an indispensable ally. The Americans might not have had any interest in the issue of the judges restoration in Pakistan, if it had not had a direct link to President Pervez Musharraf and his qualification for the office of president, the issue which is still pending before the Iftikhar-led Supreme Court, when it was sent packing by Musharraf on November 3, last year.
By sustaining pressure on Zardari, the Americans are also aware that they could estrange the PML-N from the PPP and its government, and thus deal with the suspicion that the PML-N has had links with radical groups in Pakistan. There are also apprehensions at the back of the American mind, that the PML-N, being a part of the government, may act as spanner in the interests of the US in the region. This, indeed, is a historical moment for the leadership of the PML-N and the PPP. They must understand American vested interest in Pakistan, which will only increase political and social instability in Pakistan, to the detriment of the nation.