Sindh needs a last watering to its wheat crop. When it becomes a matter of politics, Sindh has won its case; it is a province and the Pakistan People's Party originates there.
South Punjab’s needs are as crucial as that of the lower riparian of the Indus River System. The Pakistan Muslim League-N, having a limited constituency in south Punjab, has sacrificed its waters, reportedly, to cultivate brotherly relations with Sindh. The 'Big Brother' was convinced to halve the flow of the Chashma-Jhelum link canal, feeding nine districts of the southern Punjab, including Bahawalpur, that ultimately led to its closure.
The rise and fall in the level of water in a river not only affects the economy, but also politics. At least 70 per cent of the population depends on agriculture for its livelihood. The share of this sector in the GDP (gross domestic product) is 23pc and it also supplies raw material to industry.
What south Punjab contributes to agriculture, that makes Punjab a prosperous province, can be gauged by the fact that three divisions contribute 85pc of mango production, 40pc of wheat, 86pc of cotton, 31 per cent of sugarcane and 13 per cent of rice to the provincial agricultural production.
Uncertain canal water supplies have increased the south Punjab farmer's dependency on subsoil water, which they are pumping blindly, with the effect that it has become brackish and unfit for the use of either humans or crops. The level of arsenic has gone beyond the minimum 10 ppb prescribed by WHO.
The opening of the Chashma-Jhelum canal had caused a rumpus in the Sindh Assembly and various nationalist bodies had raised a hue and cry over its opening. The Sindh chapter of the PPP and the PML-N vowed to resist any move to deprive Sindh of, what they termed, its legal share of water.
The 'unanimously elected' Premier, before his visit to Lahore to have a breakfast meeting with the PML-N chief, took notice of the situation and quite understandably asked the two provinces to resolve the matter amicably. The Punjab delegation went to Karachi and that of Sindh's paid a visit to Lahore. The result: the Chashma-Jhelum link canal was closed down and water stopped to the nine districts of south Punjab.
The Indus Basin Water Treaty 1960, that deprived southern Punjab of three rivers - Ravi, Beas and Sutlej - guarantees alternative water supply from the Indus. Two link canals, the Chashma-Jhelum and the Taunsa-Punjnad, were built in the late 1960s, to take the waters off the Indus River into the barrages and canals in southern Punjab.
While the Jhelum and Chenab rivers, carrying annually 26 MAF of water, feed central Punjab, the southern parts of the province heavily depend on the Indus River with an average 86 MAF water flow. The two canals carry off 34,000 cusecs of the waters of this river and irrigate about 4 million acres land from which 700,000 families make their livelihood.
The link canals feeding Punjab have been constructed in accordance with the provision of the Indus Basin Treaty, with the funds provided by the World Bank, but their role as compensatory arrangement (due to the loss of three rivers to India) has been constricted, due to the opposition of Sindh, the lower riparian on the Indus River System.
Three eastern rivers that fed south Punjab, before the signing of the Indus Basin Treaty, had been carrying an average of 33 MAF water, out of which the Sutlej was a perennial river. These rivers were handed over to India against all international norms: no country can actually have 'complete rights' over any river, obstruct their flow and divert their waters to far off regions. (India is providing Sutlej waters to Haryana and Rajasthan and has constructed a link canal to feed the Yamuna River).
The major problems now are that the two countries have increased the cultivable area and have experienced a population boom. Disturbances in the ecosystem are causing less rains and lower flows in the rivers.
Despite the disruptions of nature, the two countries are sticking to the provisions of the treaty signed six decades ago. At the provincial level in Pakistan, Sindh insists on its rights without realizing that only south Punjab, which has always stood by the PPP, will suffer.
Pakistan recently tried to raise the issue of dwindling supplies on the western rivers during secretary-level talks with India, which the latter rejected. It continues to construct dams and increase acreage in the command areas of these rivers, as per the provision of treaty.
"If Irsa closes the Chashma-Jhelum and the Taunsa-Punjnad link canals, even with the concurrence of the Punjab government, it would be a violation of the international treaty and the agriculturists/farmers of southern Punjab would not accept the decision," the chief of the Punjab water Council had warned, ineffectively, last December.
The case of the Sutlej valley is even more pathetic: the leadership of the region (Bahawalpur) had rejected the treaty, as the combined waters of the Sutlej were the last hope of the inhabitants of the arid zone; the representatives of the region in the Parliament did not sign the 1973 constitution, due to the reason that it endorsed Yahya Khan's decree that ended the provincial status of Bahawalpur and merged it into the Punjab instead.
Not only was the perennial Sutlej river sold to India, but also the provincial status of Bahawalpur was not restored when the One Unit was abolished. The PPP endorsed the two decisions of the dictators regarding Bahawalpur and there seems, still, no chances that it will rethink its position on Bahawalpur though the latter voted the PPP into power with great hopes.
"If the river flow continues to be impeded, the Sutlej valley will be transformed into Death Valley," says the sole senator from the Bahawalpur region, Muhammad Ali Durrani, insisting that the woes of the people can only end if the provincial status of Bahawalpur is restored.